Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,317$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(653 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,223.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(2,223.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(25.5 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105.4}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(105.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $68$ on 2020-06-21

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,292$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,497.9}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(30,497.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(535 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,912.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,912.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $336$ on 2020-06-21

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $238,499$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,953.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 42.9)}}\) (asimptote \(231,953.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,634$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.9 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,471.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(33,471.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,972$ on 2020-06-21

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,279,879$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,200,346.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,200,346.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $119,969$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,873.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 48.8)}}\) (asimptote \(115,873.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,537,777$ on 2020-06-21

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $305,803$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.39 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,250.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 53.8)}}\) (asimptote \(297,250.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $42,717$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,719.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 45.0)}}\) (asimptote \(40,719.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $261,767$ on 2020-06-21

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,043$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.86 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{69,836.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 85.4)}}\) (asimptote \(69,836.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,053$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(747 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,952.3}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 49.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,952.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,990$ on 2020-06-21

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,272$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{180,642.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(180,642.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,895$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,606.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,606.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,637$ on 2020-06-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Estonia recovered 89%
Malaysia recovered 89%
Cuba recovered 85%
Italy recovered 81%
Lithuania recovered 76%
Djibouti recovered 72%
Singapore recovered 66%
Uganda recovered 65%
Hungary recovered 54%
Sri Lanka recovered 53%
Portugal recovered 49%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Qatar recovered 47%
United Arab Emirates recovered 29%
Lebanon recovered 29%
Tajikistan recovered 26%
Paraguay recovered 21%
Algeria recovered 21%
Belarus recovered 20%
Canada recovered 19%
Russia recovered 4%

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,981$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(604 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,859.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,859.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(25 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $148$ on 2020-06-21

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,572$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,065.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,065.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(56.1 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(69.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.9}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $295$ on 2020-06-21

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,312$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(570 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,159.4}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,159.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(26.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 28.0)}}\) (asimptote \(83.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $124$ on 2020-06-21

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(563 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,649.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,649.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $76$ on 2020-06-21

Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76.3}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(76.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $247$ on 2020-06-21